Attempting to predict the economy in 2026
NPR••general
Key Points:
- In 1929, economist Irving Fisher famously predicted a "permanently high plateau" for stock prices just before the Great Depression, illustrating the challenges of accurate economic forecasting.
- Recent economic forecasts have often overestimated downturns, such as predicting a prolonged pandemic recession or imminent recessions following interest rate hikes and tariffs, while the economy showed resilience.
- For 2026, most forecasters expect moderate U.S. economic growth without a recession, though growth is anticipated to remain "K-shaped," benefiting wealthier Americans and AI-related sectors more than lower-income groups.
- Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are optimistic about growth driven by tax cuts and AI investments, while others like J.P. Morgan warn of risks
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