‘Better deal’: What’s behind Trump’s rejection of Iran’s truce offer?

Key Points:

• US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran's latest seven-day proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, believing that economic and naval pressure on Iran will yield better terms if he waits.
• Iran's proposal included lifting the US naval blockade, waiving oil sanctions, releasing $12bn in frozen assets, and a regional ceasefire before reopening the strait and negotiating a final deal, but Washington remains concerned about the sequencing and conditions.
• Experts warn that while the US hopes to pressure Iran into concessions, the strategy risks backfiring as Iran may escalate regional tensions, including through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and prolong disruption to increase costs for the US and its allies.
• Political considerations also weigh on Trump, as the upcoming US midterm elections could be influenced by rising energy prices and public opposition to the conflict, complicating his calculus on when or whether to negotiate.
• Both sides appear to be engaged in a waiting game, with Iran betting on time to increase US costs and Trump aiming to strengthen his bargaining position, making a prolonged stalemate the most likely outcome.