Early voting data shows emerging signs of a Democratic advantage in the midterms

Key Points:

• Over 690,000 Americans have voted early across at least 29 states, with Democrats showing increased motivation as they request a larger share of ballots compared to previous midterms in key states like Iowa, Pennsylvania, Maine, and North Carolina.
• Early voting trends reveal an older voter demographic, with those aged 65 and older making up a growing proportion of mail voters, reflecting convenience and eligibility factors for mail-in ballots.
• Virginia stands out with a significant Democratic advantage in early voting turnout, especially in areas that supported Democrats in 2024, and competitive House districts showing increased Democratic primary participation compared to 2024.
• Despite the Democratic early voting lead, the data has limitations: early votes represent a small fraction of total expected turnout, are skewed toward mail ballots which tend to favor Democrats, and do not reveal actual vote choices due to ballot secrecy.
• Republican voters may still close the gap as Election Day approaches, particularly in more competitive races and through early in-person voting, which historically leans more Republican or evenly split.