Empty ships and shut wells: Why the Iran war oil crisis is not over yet

Key Points:

• The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire after 40 days of fighting, with negotiations set to begin in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday; a key point in Iran's proposal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, which had been nearly closed, causing global oil prices to surge.
• Following the ceasefire announcement, oil prices dropped from over $110 to $92 per barrel, but the energy crisis persists due to delays in restarting production and transport, as well as logistical and security uncertainties during the ceasefire period.
• Exports from Gulf countries fell sharply from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March, a 44% decline, with Iraq experiencing the largest drop (82%), while Oman was the only country to increase exports.
• The 206 million barrels of lost Gulf oil since the war began equate to about 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), massive tankers each capable of carrying around two million barrels of crude oil.
• At peak prices during the conflict, the lost oil exports were worth billions of dollars, contributing to global economic strain, with ongoing impacts expected on energy prices and grocery bills through 2026 and beyond.