Four years after invading Ukraine, Russia is isolated and broken - but not done
Key Points:
- Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia had strong economic ties with Europe, particularly in energy exports, but the war led Europe to sever these connections, causing severe economic consequences for Russia.
- Putin shifted Russia's focus toward Asia, especially China and India, but these countries have not invested significantly in Russia’s economy, instead buying discounted energy and maintaining their own market interests, leaving Russia economically isolated.
- Russia's economy faces a deep structural crisis marked by technological lag, sanctions, labor shortages, and demographic decline, which are unlikely to improve even if the war ends.
- Putin’s war strategy relies on a costly war of attrition and possibly general mobilization, prioritizing military goals over economic stability or compromise, with the risk of further