Georgia early voting tops 1 million. Here’s what the numbers tell us.

Key Points:

• Over 1 million early ballots have been cast in Georgia, showing encouraging signs for Democrats, especially in metro Atlanta and other left-leaning areas, though Republican strongholds are also experiencing increased turnout.
• Early voting in Democratic-leaning areas is at about 21%, compared to 16% in heavily Republican Trump-supporting regions, with Black voters comprising about 35% of early voters and women outnumbering men by roughly 10 percentage points, both favorable for Democrats.
• Turnout is rising in key GOP counties like Cherokee and Forsyth, important to the Republican statewide strategy, as well as in parts of northwest Georgia where Trump recently campaigned.
• Despite high early participation, these numbers reflect who is voting rather than how they are voting, and a significant number of split-ticket voters are expected, meaning increased turnout in Republican areas may not translate to all Republican votes, and vice versa.
• Approximately 95% of early voters also voted in the 2024 presidential election, indicating the early vote wave is dominated by regular voters rather than newcomers, and high early turnout does not necessarily predict overall turnout on Election Day.