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Global Economic Output Looks Slower for 2026, IMF Says
The New York Times • • business
Key Points:
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the global economy will slow sharply to 3 percent growth in 2026, down from 3.5 percent last year, due to disruptions caused by the war with Iran.
- The conflict, sparked by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation on energy infrastructure, has destabilized energy supply chains and triggered renewed inflation pressures.
- Recent attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. rescinding a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales have increased uncertainty about the durability of the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran.
- The IMF projects global inflation to rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 from 4.1 percent in 2025, driven by elevated commodity prices linked to the conflict's impact on energy markets.
- Political tensions remain high, with President Trump expressing skepticism about the cease-fire's viability during a NATO meeting.
