How Ukraine uses precision drone strikes to hobble Russian oil refineries

Key Points:

• Ukraine has launched a sustained drone and missile campaign targeting critical components of Russian oil refineries, especially desalting and distillation units, aiming to disrupt Russia's energy infrastructure and hasten the end of the war, according to Ukrainian officials and experts.
• These attacks have caused the worst fuel crisis in Russia since the Soviet Union's collapse, with gasoline and diesel prices rising about 20 percent this year and fuel rationing implemented by major gas companies, contributing to broader inflation.
• Sanctions from the EU and US banning the export of key refinery repair equipment to Russia have compounded the damage, making it difficult for Moscow to fix repeatedly struck refinery units, which also face structural risks from frequent attacks.
• The campaign is facilitated by Ukraine’s increased drone production, use of decoys to overwhelm Russian air defenses, and intelligence support from Western allies, enabling deep strikes despite Russia’s extensive but stretched air defense network.
• Russian leadership acknowledges the economic impact, estimating refinery damage has cost about 1 percent of GDP, and has responded by pledging improved air defenses and allowing state intervention in critical infrastructure protection and repair.