Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can’t go on like this forever
Key Points:
- Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to nearly 80% of pre-war levels, averaging 13.1 million barrels per day last week, supported by US Navy escorts and covert transit operations.
- This resurgence is partly due to Saudi Arabia redirecting oil back through the strait after attacks on its pipeline by Iran-allied Houthis temporarily disrupted flows to the Red Sea.
- Despite innovative measures and increased production outside the Gulf, global oil inventories are rapidly depleting, raising concerns about a future supply-demand imbalance that could drive prices even higher.
- Iran is intensifying attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf to reassert control over the strait, increasing risks to the current fragile flow of oil.
- The ongoing conflict and military efforts to maintain oil transit have kept fuel prices elevated, with no clear resolution in sight, leaving markets uncertain about the long-term stability of supply routes and prices.