IRGC doubles down as Iran-US MoU jeopardised by Hormuz strikes

Key Points:

• The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the US is at risk after Iran's IRGC launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, retaliating against ongoing US strikes and air attacks involving Israel.
• Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz for 30 days, directing maritime traffic through its waters, and threatened further attacks if the US violates the ceasefire clause in the MoU, which also calls for an end to military operations including in Lebanon.
• A US-brokered framework allowing Israeli forces to remain in southern Lebanon contradicts the MoU's terms and was rejected by Hezbollah, undermining the agreement and complicating regional dynamics.
• Iranian political and military leaders emphasize strengthening ties with Russia and China to counter US influence, while domestic analysts and public opinion reveal divisions over the war’s progress and prospects for negotiation.
• The conflict has negatively impacted Iran’s economy, with the rial losing value and the Tehran Stock Exchange dropping sharply, while concerns grow among traders and citizens about the potential resumption of intensified hostilities.