Joey Chestnut's utter dominance shapes hot dog eating contest
USA Today • • sports
Key Points:
- Joey Chestnut, a 17-time champion, is favored with a 95% chance to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4, though he has only a 9% chance of breaking his own record of 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes.
- Despite predictions of predictable outcomes, the contest remains popular with growing sponsorships and stable fan interest, as dominance by Chestnut continues to attract large crowds and TV audiences.
- Experts suggest that the event would gain more excitement and viewership if Chestnut had a strong rival, as competitive rivalries tend to enhance audience engagement and create memorable moments.
- The rivalry between Chestnut and former competitor Takeru Kobayashi was highly influential, but after Kobayashi’s departure in 2010, Chestnut has maintained dominance, with only Matt Stonie briefly challenging him in 2015.
- ESPN ratings dropped significantly in 2024 when Chestnut was banned from the contest, but rebounded in 2025 when he returned, highlighting the audience’s strong preference for witnessing his dominance.
