Military and intelligence officials discuss smaller presence in the Middle East as US looks for another post-9/11 strategy

Key Points:

• The US military and intelligence community are quietly discussing potential reductions in personnel and facilities in the Middle East if the Trump administration successfully ends the conflict with Iran, signaling a possible shift away from longstanding US engagement in the region.
• Despite ongoing conflict and attacks from Iran targeting US bases in countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, the US currently maintains around 50,000 troops and significant naval assets in the Middle East, with plans to harden defenses, including moving some installations underground.
• The US has a history of fluctuating troop levels in the Middle East since 9/11, peaking at around 250,000 during the Iraq invasion, but recent discussions suggest a desire to reduce the footprint and shift defense responsibilities to regional partners, though no formal force posture review has been ordered.
• Some US officials are considering alternatives to permanent basing for sensitive operations, such as deploying personnel and equipment from the US for specific missions, and may choose not to rebuild some bases heavily damaged by Iranian attacks due to cost and strategic considerations.
• There is no clear timeline for ending the conflict or reducing forces, as Iran continues attacks and the US strategy focuses on economic pressure; rebuilding bases may depend on host nation contributions, and US forces will likely face continued threats in the near term.