Mobilisation fears grip Russians as Kremlin's forced recruitment spikes

Key Points:

• Russian security forces are reportedly detaining civilians on the streets and pressuring them to sign military contracts amid indications of a potential new wave of mobilisation for the war in Ukraine.
• Human rights group Idite lesom has documented multiple cases since mid-June of forced or pressured enlistment, including recruitment efforts in prisons and targeting financially vulnerable individuals.
• Ukrainian officials and Western intelligence sources suggest mobilisation preparations are underway following the upcoming Russian State Duma elections, with increased public concern and attempts to leave Russia rising sharply.
• Russia has suffered heavy military losses since February 2022, with estimates of 1.4 million troops lost and ongoing monthly personnel deficits, while Kremlin officials deny any current plans for mass mobilisation.
• The Kremlin maintains that partial mobilisation declared in September 2022 remains in effect, but no official end to it has been announced, and officials dismiss mobilisation reports as ideological provocations.