NCAA tournament: If Cinderella is dead, who (or what) is to blame? Here are the biggest culprits

Key Points:

• All 16 teams advancing to the second week of the NCAA tournament come from the five power conferences, with only one double-digit seed (Texas) having significant resources, highlighting the decline of true underdog success.
• Jeff Eisenberg attributes the shrinking Cinderella stories to the impact of NIL deals and transfer rules, which allow top programs to attract and retain talent more effectively than mid-majors, leading to a widening talent gap.
• Dan Wolken argues that conference realignment over the past 15 years has weakened mid-major conferences by causing a domino effect of talent and program losses, which has degraded the quality of automatic bid teams and contributed heavily to fewer upsets.
• Statistical evidence shows that lower-seeded teams now have much weaker average rankings compared to a decade ago, correlating with fewer competitive games and more blowouts in the tournament’s early rounds.
• Both experts agree that while NIL and transfer portal dynamics play a role, the primary culprit behind the decline of Cinderella runs is the long-term structural impact of conference realignment eroding the strength and competitiveness of smaller conferences.