NOAA releases fall weather predictions for all 50 states as El Niño grows stronger

Key Points:

• NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts warmer-than-average temperatures for most of the U.S. from September to November, with the Pacific Northwest most likely to experience above-normal heat.
• Several states including Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia have uncertain temperature outlooks, with equal chances of warm, cool, or average fall weather.
• Precipitation forecasts are mixed: the Southwest and Southeast are expected to see above-average rainfall, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are likely to be drier; many other states have uncertain precipitation outcomes.
• Hawaii is predicted to have above-normal temperatures this fall but will likely experience cooler conditions in early 2027, along with increasing chances of below-normal rainfall starting in October.
• The 2026-2027 El Niño is expected to become a "super" El Niño with over 90% probability, likely peaking in late fall or early winter, influencing warmer, drier conditions in the north and Ohio Valley, wetter conditions in the southern U.S., suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, and increased West Coast high-tide flooding.