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'Not a run-of-the-mill El Nino.' Forecasters predict historic strength
PBS • • nation
Key Points:
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports an 81% chance that the 2024 El Nino will become "very strong," potentially ranking among the most intense since 1950.
- This El Nino, which formed recently, is already moderate and rapidly intensifying, with ocean temperatures near record highs partly due to human-driven climate change.
- The event is expected to cause significant weather impacts in fall and winter, including increased rainfall in the southern U.S., warmer winters in northern regions, and a likely reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity.
- Scientists warn this El Nino could rival or surpass the devastating 1997-1998 event, which caused thousands of deaths and billions in damages globally, and may contribute to breaking global temperature records in 2027.
- The phenomenon acts as a global climate "thermostat," releasing accumulated ocean heat into the atmosphere, thereby raising the likelihood of extreme weather and accelerating global warming effects.
