Odds favor Nithya Raman for L.A. mayor, experts say. Here's why

Key Points:

• Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman currently holds a slight lead over incumbent Karen Bass in the mayoral race, with Raman at 51.1% and Bass at 49% as about 37% of ballots remain uncounted.
• Election experts suggest the remaining vote-by-mail ballots, which tend to come from younger, more progressive voters, are likely to increase Raman’s lead, as these demographics align more with her campaign.
• The race reflects a generational and ideological divide, with Bass backed by the city’s political establishment and moderate voters, while Raman is supported by progressive groups such as the Democratic Socialists of America.
• Historical voting patterns in Los Angeles show that later-counted mail-in ballots often favor progressive candidates, as seen in recent mayoral primaries where late tallies shifted leads toward more progressive contenders.
• Despite some late polling gains for Bass and a significant number of undecided voters, experts believe Bass faces a challenging path to overcome Raman’s growing momentum based on current trends and voting system dynamics.