Operation Vivaldi: the four seasons

Key Points:

• Vladimir Putin’s new budget indicates his commitment to continuing the war against Ukraine and potentially against its European supporters, with no signs of willingness to accept a peace deal without Ukrainian capitulation.
• Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s society and economy using drones and missiles, while Ukraine struggles to defend itself amid limited resources.
• Ukraine’s military is actively resisting Russian advances in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, with recent operations such as Operation Vivaldi showing promising progress in reclaiming territory.
• Operation Vivaldi, led by Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, has successfully liberated over 125 square kilometers and multiple villages, inflicting significant casualties on Russian forces, though the full impact of the operation remains to be seen.
• The operation’s staged narrative and gradual release of information have raised some skepticism, but it has nonetheless boosted Ukrainian morale and demonstrated evolving tactics that could provide sustainable advantages.