point advantage in early voting as GOP turnout drops sharply

Key Points:

• Democrats hold a significant lead in New Jersey’s early voting, casting nearly twice as many in-person ballots as Republicans during the first three days, with Democrats accounting for 51.4% of early votes compared to 30.1% for Republicans.
• Compared to last year, Democratic in-person voting increased by 27.9%, while Republican turnout dropped by 28.2%, resulting in a cumulative Democratic lead of about 27 percentage points after three days, up from just two points in 2025.
• Including mail-in ballots, Democrats have a nearly 286,000-vote advantage over Republicans, with Democratic voters making up nearly 62% of the combined total of 708,727 ballots cast statewide.
• In key districts, Democrats are also leading in early in-person voting, notably in the 7th congressional district where Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett is contesting Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., and in the 2nd district where Rep. Jeff Van Drew is running for re-election.
• While these early voting trends show a notable shift toward Democrats, experts caution that the final outcome remains uncertain as Republicans could increase turnout in the remaining early voting period or on Election Day.