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Report: Roughly Half the World’s Governments Underestimated Covid Deaths by the Millions
Gizmodo • • health
Key Points:
- Researchers Moses Shayo and Ariel Karlinsky analyzed all-cause mortality data from 134 countries, finding that 45% to 55% of nations underreported COVID-19 death tolls during 2020-2021, with actual deaths estimated at about 12.47 million compared to the official 5.08 million.
- The study, published in the Journal of Economic Growth, suggests widespread manipulation of COVID-19 data, particularly in countries with weak institutional checks and less sophisticated audiences, where governments acted as "informational autocrats."
- Underreporting was less related to cultural or economic factors and more strongly correlated with the level of government constraints and audience education/internet access, indicating premeditated efforts to minimize the pandemic's impact.
- The researchers noted that some discrepancies might stem from bureaucratic caution in attributing deaths to COVID-19, but also found evidence that countries holding elections during the pandemic exhibited higher levels of misreporting.
- While the study stops short of claiming direct causality, it highlights the significant role of institutional strength and political incentives in the accuracy of pandemic data reporting.
