Russians leave before election ends, fearing mobilisation to follow

Key Points:

• Russians fearing a new military mobilisation amid the ongoing war in Ukraine are increasingly leaving the country, with requests for emergency assistance and emigration advice nearly octupling since summer, according to the anti-war Ark project.
• The surge in departures coincides with Russia's State Duma elections (18-20 September), amid accusations from Kremlin critics and Western governments that Moscow plans to announce a new troop call-up after the vote to avoid electoral backlash.
• Preparations for mobilisation are evident, with tens of thousands receiving summons notices and the introduction of an electronic register that automatically bans exit upon issuance; some individuals have already been detained at border controls with exit bans.
• Most emigrants are heading to visa-free neighboring countries such as Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, with Armenia reporting a migration crisis due to the influx; however, the current exodus is less intense than the 2022 partial mobilisation wave.
• Russia's Duma elections exclude opposition parties critical of the war, such as Yabloko, reinforcing the Kremlin's control amid the conflict and rising domestic unease over potential new military conscriptions.