Russia’s Mobilization Looming as Putin Sticks to Ambitions

Key Points:

• Russia has not officially announced a new mobilization, but military readiness exercises and increased recruitment efforts suggest preparations are underway amid heavy losses in Donbas.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky and Western intelligence warn Russia may mobilize up to 300,000 troops after September elections, with recruitment focused on peripheral regions rather than major cities.
• Russia denies plans for mass mobilization, echoing previous denials before the 2022 partial mobilization, which triggered protests and a large exodus of potential conscripts.
• Russia’s military faces significant manpower shortages, low morale among troops, and limited territorial gains despite high casualties, while the economy struggles with budget deficits and labor shortages critical for military production.
• CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent visit to Moscow, the first since 2021, raised speculation about US warnings to Russia against escalation or NATO provocations, although no official details were disclosed.