Strategic Stability and the Rebuilding of Xi’s Military

Key Points:

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping has conducted a sweeping purge of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) senior command, removing many top officers and causing near-term degradation in military readiness and command cohesion.
• The purge has created a fragile military leadership structure, with many senior posts temporarily filled by acting officers, leading to psychological paralysis and reduced capability for managing external crises.
• Xi is currently focused on rebuilding the PLA through a dual-track approach emphasizing political loyalty among officers and repairing compromised materiel, while maintaining a low-profile military posture around Taiwan and the South China Sea.
• A “strategic stability” framework agreed with the U.S. provides Beijing with a multi-year truce that covers the PLA’s rebuilding period, limiting external pressure and allowing China to quietly strengthen its forces.
• The U.S. faces a strategic challenge during this truce period: maintaining pressure without breaking the framework, while preparing for a future in which a rebuilt PLA may embolden Beijing to pursue more assertive actions, especially regarding Taiwan.