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The Quiet Way A.I. Is Hitting the Work Force
The New York Times • • business
Key Points:
- In May 2025, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicted that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years, potentially pushing unemployment above 10 percent.
- Despite significant advancements in AI, the unemployment rate has remained low, falling to 4.1 percent by August 2026, suggesting AI has not yet caused widespread job losses.
- Research by Sania Edlich and Torsten Slok shows that AI-exposed occupations have seen slower wage growth over the past three years, while employment levels have remained steady, indicating companies are using AI to suppress wages rather than reduce staff.
- The impact of AI is more pronounced in knowledge work, where employers are hiring fewer new employees rather than firing existing ones, affecting job openings and wage dynamics, especially for younger workers.
- Occupations less exposed to AI, such as hairdressers or doormen, have not experienced similar wage or employment pressures, highlighting the uneven impact of AI across different job sectors.
