The Coming Showdown Over Cuba
Foreign Affairs • • nation
Key Points:
- U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Cuba by declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on countries supplying oil to the island, resulting in a near-total cutoff of foreign oil and a severe economic crisis in Cuba.
- The Cuban government faces worsening shortages of electricity, fuel, medicine, and food, leading to widespread social distress including protests, school closures, and overwhelmed healthcare facilities.
- Despite the crisis, a U.S. military intervention similar to the operation against Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro is considered unlikely due to Cuba’s loyal security forces and the loss of surprise.
- The Cuban leadership, under President Miguel Díaz-Canel, may be forced to negotiate with Washington and consider reforms, but any transition is expected to maintain single-party rule and avoid meaningful
