The Russian Military Campaign Against Europe: Defining the Threat

Key Points:

• The Kremlin is conducting coordinated kinetic campaigns targeting Europe, aiming to disrupt NATO support for Ukraine, intimidate European states, and prepare conditions for potential future conventional operations against NATO; European governments must develop a shared understanding and coordinated responses to these ongoing attacks.
• European officials have begun publicly attributing Russian attacks, such as the August 5, 2026 drone strike on Leipzig/Halle Airport, directly to Russia, though many still use language like "provocations" or "hybrid attacks," which downplays the severity and hinders effective policy responses.
• NATO must prepare for the possibility of near-term limited conventional Russian attacks, especially against Baltic states, which could politically divide the alliance even if not militarily existential; current European defense timelines may underestimate the immediacy of this threat.
• European states need to accelerate rearmament and adapt military capabilities by integrating lessons from Ukraine’s drone-centric and infiltration tactics, balancing traditional mechanized warfare with new approaches to effectively counter evolving Russian military strategies.
• NATO and Europe must move beyond reactive measures to implement proactive, coordinated policies that address the ongoing kinetic campaigns, potential near-term conventional threats, and the changing character of war, ensuring unity and deterrence without succumbing to alarmism or complacency.