The Six Pack: Picks for Florida-Ole Miss, USC-Oregon and lock of Week 4

Key Points:

• Underdogs in FBS college football have a notably poor start to the 2026 season, winning only 15.9% of games, the lowest since data tracking began in 2014, and significantly below last year's 26.5% win rate.
• Early-season underdog struggles persist even in closely matched games with spreads of 7.5 points or less, where the win percentage is just 33.9%, compared to a historical average near 39%.
• Key upcoming games include Ole Miss at Florida and Oregon at USC, both expected to be high-scoring affairs due to defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, with over/under totals set high.
• The "Lock of the Week" highlights Iowa's offensive struggles facing a strong Michigan defense, predicting Iowa will score under 16.5 points, consistent with their recent performances against ranked opponents on the road.
• A principled pick advises fading Nebraska as a road favorite against Michigan State, citing coach Matt Rhule's poor road record as a favorite, while the upset pick favors Sacramento State over UMass due to travel challenges and competition level.