This El Niño Is on Track to Become the Strongest on Record by a ‘Mind-Blowing Margin’

Key Points:

• Scientists warn that the upcoming El Niño could become the strongest on record, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures projected to rise about 6.5°F (3.6°C) above average, surpassing the previous 2015-2016 record by 1.4°F (0.8°C).
• NOAA declared El Niño in June, with peak sea surface temperatures expected between November and February, potentially causing global average temperatures in 2027 to rise as high as 3°F (1.7°C) above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target.
• The extreme heat from this event could trigger more intense heatwaves, droughts, flooding, and wildfires worldwide, with potential economic losses estimated at $10 trillion by 2032.
• Researchers note that super El Niños are likely to become more frequent due to climate change, but caution that current models have never been tested against an event of this unprecedented magnitude, so forecasts remain uncertain.
• Scientists will closely monitor the development of this El Niño over the coming months to better understand its potential impacts and refine predictions.