Trump grants Kyiv Patriots licences: What’s next in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Key Points:

• Ukraine urgently needs Western-made Patriot missile interceptors to defend against frequent Russian attacks, but its stock has been depleted; US President Donald Trump has granted Ukraine a license to produce these complex missiles domestically, though production timelines remain unclear.
• Ukraine is increasingly relying on advanced drone technology and network-centric warfare tactics, including AI-powered strike drones and ground robots, to compensate for personnel shortages and enhance battlefield effectiveness.
• Russia’s focus on producing costly missiles over air defense systems has left its vast territory vulnerable to Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, exemplified by recent attacks on critical infrastructure like the Omsk oil refinery.
• Despite Ukraine’s growing air capabilities and recent successes, experts caution that missile and drone warfare is expensive, reciprocal, and unlikely to yield a decisive victory without broader strategic developments or peace negotiations.
• The conflict continues with heavy civilian impact, as seen in recent missile strikes on Kyiv causing casualties and damage; meanwhile, discussions about shifting peace talks toward a ceasefire rather than Ukrainian concessions are emerging, though Russia remains resistant.