Trump's trade tariff revenue is already in decline
Fortune••business
Key Points:
- Studies confirm that tariffs negatively impact economic growth and increase unemployment, but their effect on inflation has been milder than initially expected.
- U.S. government revenue from Trump’s tariffs peaked at $34.2 billion in October 2025 but has since declined, indicating a weakening influence on inflation over time.
- Analysts estimate tariffs contributed only about 0.9 percentage points to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, with much of the impact already behind, suggesting inflation may approach the 2% target later this year.
- Lower-than-expected tariff revenues have constrained the U.S. government's ability to reduce its growing debt, with cumulative deficits reaching $439 billion for fiscal year 2026 and national debt exceeding $38.5
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