Ukraine’s F-16 Fleet Is In A Readiness Crisis

Key Points:

• Ukraine’s F-16 fleet is under significant strain due to a shortage of air-to-air missiles and a major bottleneck in maintenance, with over half the aircraft reportedly stuck in "maintenance limbo," risking depletion of operational jets by year-end.
• The high operational tempo, driven by increased Russian drone attacks, is rapidly consuming missile stocks like AIM-9 Sidewinders and AIM-120 AMRAAM, forcing Ukrainian pilots to rely more on less effective 20mm cannons and limited use of APKWS II rockets.
• Maintenance delays are exacerbated by limited depot capacity in Belgium, where phase inspections can take up to 40 weeks, severely reducing the number of available F-16s for combat despite ongoing deliveries from Western allies.
• The F-16s in Ukraine’s fleet are aging airframes upgraded to F-16AM/BM standards, facing fatigue and requiring extensive inspections, while the shared missile supply chain also supports ground-based air defenses, further straining resources.
• Alternatives like MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Mirage 2000-5Fs exist but are limited in number or aging, leaving the F-16 as Ukraine’s primary Western fighter until future deliveries of Gripen fighters begin in 2027 and beyond.