US intel assesses Putin could launch attack aimed at testing NATO unity

Key Points:

• Recent US intelligence assessments suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt a limited attack on a NATO ally, such as the Baltics or Poland, within the next few years to test NATO's resolve without provoking a full allied response.
• Scenarios range from cyberattacks to small-scale incursions aimed at challenging NATO’s unity and commitment to Article 5, with escalation likely if Putin fails to secure a face-saving exit from the Ukraine war.
• There have been multiple incidents of Russian encroachment on NATO territory recently, including drone attacks in Romania, Poland, and an explosive-laden drone found at a German airport, believed to be linked to Russian intelligence.
• The US faces concerns over depleted missile defense stockpiles due to ongoing conflicts, impacting military planning for potential future escalations involving Russia or China, while civilian casualties from Russian long-range weapons have surged.
• Diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war have stalled despite sanctions impacting Russia’s economy, with NATO maintaining readiness to deter and defend against any threats.