US traders make big profits betting on Maduro’s capture in January
The Guardian••business
Key Points:
- Gamblers made significant profits by betting on the capture of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro through prediction markets, which allow users to place binary bets on political and financial outcomes.
- A new trader on Polymarket.com reportedly invested $30,000 on Maduro being out of office by January 31, 2026, and earned over $436,000 after Maduro’s capture was announced.
- The implied probability of Maduro leaving office by the end of January surged from 5.5% to nearly 99% within hours on the prediction market, reflecting rapid market response to unfolding events.
- Prediction markets like Polymarket have seen explosive growth in the US, with betting volumes rising from under $100 million to over $13 billion
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