‘We will retaliate like an earthquake:’ How Iran could respond to Trump’s economic ‘D-Day’

Key Points:

• The US has announced expanded secondary sanctions targeting Iran’s trade partners in key economic sectors like digital assets, technology, and shipping, aiming to disrupt Iran’s ability to evade existing sanctions amid a prolonged stalemate with Iran and Israel.
• Iran has threatened significant retaliatory actions, including blocking oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and targeting alternative oil shipment routes, which could drive global oil prices higher and impact gasoline prices in the US.
• Tehran has warned it may escalate military actions geographically, potentially striking US-allied NATO members such as Bulgaria, marking a major escalation if realized, while emphasizing any support for US economic measures against Iran would be considered an act of war.
• Iran is reconsidering its nuclear stance, with discussions underway about withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and hints from officials about developing nuclear weapons in response to US-Israeli aggression and sanctions.
• Experts suggest Iran will pursue a dual strategy of economic adaptation and deterrence, building alternative trade routes while signaling that attempts to fully isolate Iran economically will provoke costly regional consequences.