You know the launch market is tough when satellite companies start building rockets

Key Points:

• AST SpaceMobile, a Texas-based satellite company, announced plans to develop a medium-lift rocket called Blacklift, aiming for commercial launches by late 2028 to support its direct-to-cell satellite network.
• Industry experts consider the 2028 launch timeline extremely optimistic, given that comparable medium-lift rocket developments typically take 5 to 9 years, even for experienced companies with significant funding.
• AST plans to use Firefly’s Miranda and Vira engines, having committed $1.3 billion for engine licenses, engines, and engineering support, which may reduce development time but not enough to meet the announced schedule.
• The announcement highlights a broader trend of satellite operators considering building their own rockets due to a worsening launch capacity crisis and the availability of investment capital for new medium-lift launch providers.
• Despite existing contracts with SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others covering over 100 satellite launches through 2028, AST’s rationale for developing Blacklift remains unclear, raising questions about the necessity and financial prudence of the project.