2026 El Niño intensity forecast explained: What to know
New York Post • • world
Key Points:
- The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) now predicts a 100% chance of a super El Niño by November, up from a 55% chance in March, indicating a potentially historic event.
- A strong El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing storms in the Eastern Pacific, though the ECMWF forecast currently shows near-normal hurricane numbers for the Atlantic season.
- The forecast calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes in the Atlantic, slightly below the average of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, with below-average tropical activity expected in the Atlantic Main Development Region.
- Above-average precipitation is predicted for the southern U.S., especially the northern Gulf region, which could help alleviate drought conditions in the Southeast during the fall and winter.
- Atlantic water temperatures are expected to be above average throughout the season, and while El Niño may reduce tropical activity, it is unlikely to completely shut it down.
