After Callais and Virginia, Republicans are ahead in Trump’s gerrymandering war

Key Points:

• Following the U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling, several southern red states have initiated GOP-favorable redistricting, with Virginia's high court striking down a Democratic-backed map, giving Republicans a likely advantage in the 2025-26 midterms.
• Republican-led states including Texas, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Ohio, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina are expected to gain 16 to 18 congressional seats through aggressive gerrymandering, while Democrats have gained six seats in California and Utah but were blocked in Virginia.
• Legal challenges are mounting against many GOP maps, especially in Florida and other post-Callais states, with lawsuits alleging violations of anti-partisan gerrymandering laws and objections to emergency legislative sessions suspending primaries.
• Despite GOP redistricting efforts, a potential Democratic wave in 2026, fueled by low approval ratings for President Trump, could reduce the effectiveness of these gerrymanders, though Republicans currently appear poised to net a 10 to 12 seat advantage in the House.
• Both parties are expected to continue aggressive redistricting ahead of the 2028 primaries, with Democrats reconsidering restrictions on majority-minority districts and blue states moving to repeal or suspend laws limiting partisan map drawing.