As US claims victory, Iran emerges bruised but with leverage over Hormuz

Key Points:

• The nearly six-week war between the U.S. and Iran ended with a ceasefire, but analysts warn it entrenches Iran's radical government and control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, giving Tehran significant leverage over global energy markets and Gulf rivals.
• Iran has shifted from monitoring to effectively controlling passage through the Strait of Hormuz, demanding fees for safe passage, which threatens global energy supplies and regional stability.
• Despite heavy U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran's leadership remains firmly in control, retaining its nuclear capabilities, missile and drone production, and influence over regional militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
• Gulf countries view the Strait of Hormuz as a red line and demand strict guarantees on freedom of navigation and non-interference, warning that any agreement leaving Iran in control would be a strategic defeat for the U.S.
• While a ceasefire and upcoming peace talks offer a pause, experts caution that without addressing core issues like ballistic missiles, nuclear enrichment, and proxy conflicts, the conflict remains unresolved and regional instability could worsen.