California may be in path of a ‘super’ El Niño. It could bring rain, floods, coastal erosion
Los Angeles Times • • nation
Key Points:
- Indicators suggest a strong El Niño event may develop later this summer, potentially the strongest of the century to impact Southern California, with sea surface temperatures possibly exceeding seasonal averages by 2 degrees Celsius.
- El Niño, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, involves warmer Pacific waters influencing global weather patterns, often causing droughts in some regions and heavy rains in others; this year's warm water levels exceed those of the major 1997-98 event.
- NOAA forecasts over a 90% chance of El Niño developing by fall, with a 50% chance of it being a strong event, though the exact weather impacts remain uncertain due to complex atmospheric factors.
- Strong El Niños can increase Southern California's winter rainfall, potentially reducing wildfire risk but also raising the risk of flooding and coastal erosion; however, past strong events have produced varying effects on precipitation.
- Beyond terrestrial impacts, El Niño can reduce plankton nutritional quality, exacerbating marine ecosystem stress as seen in previous sea lion pup die-offs, raising concerns for the upcoming breeding season at key rookeries.
