Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets
The Guardian • • business
Key Points:
- New accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific bets on a US-Iran ceasefire before it was announced, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new users.
- These bets were placed despite escalating tensions and warnings from Donald Trump earlier on the day of the ceasefire announcement, suggesting the traders had access to information or insights not publicly available.
- Analysis shows at least 50 new wallets placed substantial bets on the ceasefire before Trump’s announcement, with some users cashing out profits as high as $200,000.
- Polymarket has labeled the ceasefire contract as “disputed” due to ongoing regional tensions, delaying some payouts, and the platform has not commented on the suspicious betting patterns.
- The pattern of well-timed, profitable bets by new accounts has raised concerns about insider trading in prediction markets, prompting calls from lawmakers and industry experts for regulatory measures to prevent misuse of inside information.
