CNN Data Guru Warns Trump That a 'Blowout' Is on the Way

Key Points:

• Democrats are leading the generic congressional ballot by 10 points, up from 4 points a year ago, putting them on track to win approximately 238 House seats and potentially control both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterms.
• CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten attributes the GOP’s struggles to President Trump’s historically low approval rating of 31 percent, with 66 percent disapproval, the lowest he has ever received according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
• Enten estimates a 71 percent chance of a Democratic "blowout" in the House, defined as winning at least 230 seats, while Republicans have only a 2 percent chance of such an outcome; even accounting for historical polling errors, Democrats are expected to maintain a solid majority.
• The Senate race remains competitive, but Democrats hold leads in key states like Ohio and Texas, with Enten giving Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning at least 52 Senate seats, suggesting an 81 percent overall chance of comfortable Democratic control of Congress.
• Despite Enten’s pessimistic forecast for Republicans, President Trump has highlighted more favorable past analyses from Enten on social media, avoiding recent projections of a Democratic blowout and instead focusing on earlier positive commentary.