Defense decoupling is no longer just a European fear - it’s Trump’s policy

Key Points:

• The U.S. decision to halt the sale of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Germany signals a shift away from deploying deep precision strike systems in Europe and reflects a fear of provoking Russia, marking a move toward decoupling U.S. and European security.
• Recent U.S. actions, including troop withdrawals and reduced military contributions to NATO, contrast with historical concerns about decoupling, as the current disengagement originates from Washington rather than Moscow.
• This policy shift undermines NATO's deterrence strategy by reopening a gap in long-range missile capabilities, as European missile development is still years away, and restricts allies' ability to defend themselves despite calls for increased European defense responsibility.
• The dynamic reflects a broader tension in alliance theory between fears of abandonment and entrapment, with both the U.S. and Europe increasingly acting to decouple their security interests amid mutual distrust.
• As Europe invests in sovereign long-range strike capabilities independent of U.S. control, the integrated deterrence system that has maintained peace for decades risks unraveling, raising questions about the future of transatlantic security cooperation.