First major 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast predicts slightly below-average season
CBS News • • nation
Key Points:
- Researchers from Colorado State University predict a slightly below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, estimating 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, influenced mainly by expected El Niño conditions.
- The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, peaking between August and October, with forecasts subject to updates as conditions evolve, particularly regarding sea surface temperatures.
- El Niño, anticipated to develop between May and July with a 61% chance, typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by reducing storm frequency and intensity, contributing to the forecasted dip to about 75% of the long-term average.
- There is a 32% chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall and a 35% chance for the Caribbean in 2026, though less intense storms can still pose significant risks, underscoring the importance of preparedness regardless of seasonal outlooks.
- The first named storm of 2026 will be Arthur, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, and Fay, with names assigned alphabetically according to the World Meteorological Organization's list.
