How Talarico, Paxton compare before Election Day

Key Points:

• Two recent polls show a tight Texas U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, with Emerson College polling indicating a statistical tie and the Cook Political Report showing Talarico with a clear lead.
• The Emerson College poll (Oct. 17-19) found Talarico leading 48% to 46%, within its 3.1% margin of error, while the Cook Political Report poll (Oct. 9-13) showed Talarico ahead 49% to 44%, a margin outside its 3.2% error range.
• Both polls highlight differing voter trust on key issues: Talarico leads on fighting corruption, inflation, and the economy, whereas Paxton is favored on immigration and border security, which many Texas voters prioritize.
• Other October polls consistently show a narrow lead for Talarico, with margins ranging from tied to a few points ahead, indicating a competitive race as early voting nears its end.
• The presence of Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, polling around 1-3%, could influence the final outcome by potentially siphoning votes from Paxton, according to Emerson College analysis.