Lawmakers demand investigations into well-timed bets on Polymarket tied to the Iran war
AP News • • general
Key Points:
- Congressional lawmakers are calling for investigations into Polymarket after multiple instances of anonymous traders making large, well-timed bets on major geopolitical events just before they occurred, raising concerns about insider trading.
- Recent examples include substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire minutes before President Trump’s announcement, and prior profitable wagers on Venezuelan leader Maduro's capture and potential U.S. strikes on Iran.
- Harvard researchers estimate that $143 million in profits on Polymarket may have come from traders with insider information on diverse events, prompting Rep. Ritchie Torres to request a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation.
- Polymarket, banned in the U.S. since 2022, is attempting a limited domestic reentry via acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange, while continuing offshore crypto-based operations outside U.S. jurisdiction.
- Bipartisan congressional concern includes calls to ban such prediction market bets on sensitive topics, with Sen. Richard Blumenthal highlighting risks of national security secrets being exploited, and both parties sponsoring related legislation.
