Texas poll: James Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate while Greg Abbott leads for governor

Key Points:

• Democrat James Talarico holds a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race at 46% to 43%, within the poll's margin of error, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 41% in the governor's race, also within the margin of error.
• Latino voters in Texas, who make up about a third of the electorate, lean strongly Democratic, with Talarico leading by 18 points and Hinojosa by 13 points among this group; however, Democrats may need around 64% of the Latino vote to win statewide.
• Economic concerns top voter priorities, with inflation and cost of living most influential among Hispanic voters at 33%, followed by immigration at 23%; social issues like abortion and transgender rights rank low in voter importance despite heavy Republican advertising on these topics.
• Voters show strong support for restrictions on gender transition-related medical treatments for minors (63%) and for students using bathrooms corresponding to their birth sex (61%), yet these issues remain less influential in voting decisions compared to economic and immigration concerns.
• Opinions on cooperation with ICE vary significantly by race and political affiliation, with white voters more supportive of cooperation, Black voters largely opposed, and sharp ideological divides on whether police should question individuals about immigration status during lawful encounters.