The Athletic releases annual comprehensive draft guide ‘The Beast’
Pride Of Detroit • • sports
Key Points:
- Analysis of rookie NFL tackles from 2016-2025 shows that only 20% of all rookies both played more snaps and scored higher than Taylor Decker’s 2025 baseline performance (67.9 PFF grade and 894 snaps).
- Among 58 rookies with “meaningful” playing time (defined as over 600 snaps), 43% exceeded Decker’s grade, but these higher-performing players were disproportionately drafted early: 54% of rookies picked 1-16 scored above 67.9 versus 29% of picks 17-50.
- Nearly half (48%) of meaningful playing-time rookies were drafted in the top 16, reinforcing that immediate impact tackles are more likely to come from early draft picks.
- Average rookie tackle performance varies by draft position, with top 10 picks averaging a PFF grade of 70.27 and 740 snaps overall, while second-round picks average lower grades (62.11) and fewer snaps.
- The study emphasizes that while some late-round rookies can perform well, the probability of finding a rookie tackle who can match or exceed Decker’s 2025 performance is significantly higher among early first-round selections.
