Trump has backed away from renewed war with Iran - here’s why

Key Points:

• On June 11, the US and Iran avoided escalating into full-scale war after President Trump postponed planned US military strikes, citing progress in negotiations between the two countries.
• Trump announced that a deal, described as a memorandum of understanding to establish a framework for further talks, was close to being finalized, though Iran’s foreign ministry denied any agreement had been reached.
• Analysts note that despite diplomatic overtures, a return to war lacked clear strategic objectives from the US side, and the Iranian regime’s structure as a dispersed militia network makes it resilient to conventional military attacks.
• Iran has demonstrated its ability to retaliate aggressively, including missile barrages against Israel, and could escalate conflict by threatening critical maritime routes like the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which would worsen the global energy crisis.
• Renewed conflict risked alienating key Gulf allies, as repeated Iranian strikes on US installations could lead Gulf states to view American military presence as a liability rather than a shield.