Ukraine Wipes Out Nearly All of Russia’s 2026 Territorial Gains, ISW Says

Key Points:

• Ukrainian forces have largely neutralized Russia’s territorial gains since March 2026 through successful counteroffensives in multiple sectors, marking a significant shift in battlefield dynamics since August 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
• Counteroffensive operations in Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman have disrupted Russian objectives, with Ukrainian troops regaining key positions and preventing further Russian advances into critical regions like Dnipropetrovsk.
• Despite some localized Russian gains near Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk, neither side currently holds full initiative across the front, as Ukraine’s actions increasingly limit Russia’s ability to secure lasting territorial control.
• ISW notes that additional Russian mobilization efforts may aim to restore offensive capacity, but it remains uncertain if this would significantly alter the ongoing stalemate on the battlefield.
• Previous ISW analysis projects that at Russia’s current pace, capturing the remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk would take until 2032, far beyond Moscow’s goal of completing this by the end of 2026.