We Still Haven’t Answered the Basic Questions of the Iran War

Key Points:

• The U.S. administration’s focus on quantifiable military assets in Iran risks oversimplifying the conflict, ignoring the true “center of gravity” which lies in Iran’s institutions like the IRGC and clerical leadership that underpin the regime’s resilience.
• Unlike conventional wars with clear decisive points, Iran’s conflict involves diffuse targets including military, institutional, economic, and psychological elements, complicating efforts to weaken its core strength.
• Historical lessons from Iraq highlight that destroying visible military assets does not guarantee regime collapse, as adversaries adapt through irregular warfare and saturation with concealed weapons, a tactic Iran has adopted.
• Intelligence assessments about Iran’s military capabilities should be treated with skepticism due to the “fog of war” and “friction,” which create uncertainty and allow Iran to conceal weaknesses and shift to asymmetric tactics.
• Key strategic questions remain unresolved: whether U.S. actions are truly impacting Iran’s core power, if the right decisive points are targeted, and how Iran exploits uncertainty and operational challenges to its advantage.